{Originally posted at https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/actionpcsports/whirled-ball-year-ii-the-way-football-never-was-co-t23780-s10.html#p239958 but I think it belongs here as well.}
AND THAT WRAPS IT UP! Another regular season come and gone.
It seems like previewing the opening round of the playoffs is the only thing to do here, so here we go. One note: I’ve developed a custom AV formula for DKS football. It’s pretty complex–and bits of it are pretty arbitrary–but it seems to work OK, while giving players credit for the kind of stats DKS tracks (hurries, drops, etc).
Anything over 20 is incredible; 15-20 is a likely all pro; 8-15 is a solid, solid player, etc. I use these ratings below.
#NORTHISH DIVISION WILD CARD GAME
Dublin Damhas (10-7) @ London Fog (11-6)
In the final week, London beat up on Boston 45-14 and Dublin lost to New York 42-41 in a great game. Those results gave London home field advantage for the wild card game.
The offenses are quite comparable, with both Russell Wilson (LON, 91 QBR) and Aaron Rodgers (DUB, 4510 yards, 85 QBR) ending the year with AVs of 20. Dublin looks to have the edge at RB with Jim Taylor (1798 yards rushing, 16 TDs, 14 AV), but when you look at the combined production of Emmitt Smith (472 yards, 5 AV, and injured early in the year) and Marshawn Lynch (1033 yards, 10 TDs, 8 AV), it’s much closer. Dublin may have the edge due to the jaw-dropping work this year of T Forrest Gregg (20 AV and a league leading–by a long shot–52 great blocks). As context, that is more than twice as many as London’s leading OL, T Rayfield Wright (12 AV, 25 blocks).
The receiving corps are excellent on both sides, with London led by it’s 3 Amigos of Steve Largent (105 catches, 1445 yards, 11 TD, 20 AV), Michael Irvin (11 AV), and Dez Bryant (8 AV) and Dublin by DeAndre Hopkins (102 catches, 10 TD, 1200 yards, 14 AV), Randall Cobb (1007 yards, 10 AV), and the surprising Jordy Nelson (8 AV). Nelson’s 88 catches were largely a result of Don Hutson‘s long injury absence.
So, call that about a wash.
Defensively, Dublin is led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate J.J. Watt (11 sacks, 22 stuffs, 26 hurries, 7 FF, 20 AV), DB Casey Hayward (6 Ints, 16 deflections, 14 AV), and DL Mike Daniels (11 AV). The LB crew has been riddled with injuries, but Ray Nitschke‘s return certainly helps.
London’s defense has performed similarly to Dublin’s in terms of team stats, but without the star power. They’ve been led by a very solid quintet: DeMarcus Ware at OLB (6 sacks, 12 AV), Too Tall Jones (11 AV) and Cortez Kennedy (9 AV) up front, and the safety pair of Kam Chancellor (9 AV) and Earl Thomas (8 AV). Richard Sherman led the defense with 93 tackles and 7 interceptions, but he also racked up 147 yards in penalties
London looks to have the edge on special teams, with Dan Bailey being one of the few dependable kickers in the league this year. But Dublin, having lost Mason Crosby to injury and abandoning Randy Bullock to incompetence, have settled with Al Del Greco as their placekicker, and he’s been basically lights out over the past few games.
So, perhaps the individual performances of Watt and Hayward provide the difference here?
The winner travels to New York the following week.
#SOUTHISH DIVISION WILD CARD GAME
Tokyo Swallows(11-6) @ Rio de Janeiro Carnival (12-5)
There isn’t a greater contrast in offensive philosophy than these 2 teams. Tokyo averages nearly 350 yards passing per game and only 80 yards on the ground while Rio racks up 200 yards per game on the ground while passing for under 190 yards.
Remember, those are averages.
Tokyo is led, of course, by MVP candidate QB George Blanda (5937 yards, 23 AV) who threw for 67 TDs and just under 9 yards per attempt. If you’re going to overcome 35 interceptions, that’s what you have to do.
WR Demaryius Thomas (22 AV) was putting together an all-time great season, with over 1700 yards in only 13 games. But his injury is going to keep him out of the playoffs, which is a shame. Rod Smith (1134 yards, 20 TDs, 16 AV), Shannon Sharpe (13 AV), and Lionel Taylor (1044 yards, 10TD, 12 AV) have certainly stepped up in Thomas’ absence.
But perhaps the key for Tokyo has been the emergence of RBs CJ Anderson (8 AV) and Kimble Anders (5 AV), filling in for Earl Campbell, who was injured in the opening game of the season. Campbell is back now, giving Blanda even more options.
Rio’s offense centers, as always, around Jim Brown (1423 yards, 16TD, 11 AV in 11 games) and the most dominant offensive line in the league, led by Joe Thomas (45 blocks, 14 AV), Joel Bitonio (33 blocks, 12 AV), and Frank Gatski (28 blocks, 12 AV).
Len Dawson (96 QBR, 7 AV) and Otto Graham (80 QBR, 8 AV) have split time at QB due to Dawson’s injuries, but now that he’s healthy again, Dawson is the clear #1. The receiving corps has been mediocre all year, with Paul Warfield (9 AV) the only consistent threat. Most importantly, TE Tony Gonzalez (5 AV in 5 games) returns from injury for the playoffs.
This is hard to call: the issue is that Tokyo needs only a few plays to score, so they are never actually out of a game. I think this goes however Blanda goes: more than 2 interceptions, and Rio will control the clock.
So that turns the focus to the defenses, where Rio has the clear edge.
Jabaal Sheard (90 tackles, 8 sacks, 16 AV) has been a monster up front for the Carnival, and Eric Berry and Joe Haden (each at 12 AV) have anchored a solid secondary, and those 3 have been supported by DT Dontari Poe (10 AV), ILB Craig Robertson (9 AV), and S Johnny Robinson (8 AV). Clearly, facing Blanda, those 3 secondary players will be key.
Tokyo’s defense has been absolutely decimated with injuries, early season starters Bud McFadin, Von Miller, Jack Ham, and Karl Mecklenburg all absent (Ham may return, the rest will miss the rest of the postseason). Sean Jones and Ziggy Hood (171 tackles combined, 10 AV each) have been solid up front for the Swallows, and ILB Randy Gradishar and CB Chris Harris, Jr. (8 AV each) have probably been their most consistent performers.
But the pressure will really be on the middle of the defense against Brown, with Tokyo needing DLs Karl Klug (5 AV), Ray Childress (3 AV in 6 games), and ILB Al Smith (2 AV) to really step up.
I think Brown runs amok and Rio wins. Whoever comes out on top will travel to Istanbul next week.