12-5, 1st place
For a team that won the championship, there are a lot of off season challenges here, most revolving around sorting through how to handle the many partial seasons played due to injuries.
Still, it’s a good set of problems to have, and most of the top-end decisions are fairly obvious.
A 12 win season is a success by an measure, but an early season loss to Lomé, coupled with a 1-4 finish to the season (including losses both away and at home to Tokyo) put home field advantage at doubt for the Janissaries, and raised the question of whether they could defeat the Swallows if they met. Perhaps luckily, they retained home field due to points advantage, and Rio beat Tokyo in the Southish Wild Card game.
The Off Season
It’s all about roster tweaking for the Whirled Ball champs.
Bottom Line
Strengths
QB, WR, DL, DB.
Needs
OL Depth, DL/LB Depth, RB Depth.
Offense
Pts: 2nd
Rush/G: 8th
Pass/G: 2nd
Yards/Play: 2nd
Skill
Johnny Unitas (19.6 AV, 4635 yards passing, 40:21 TD:interception) remains an elite QB, putting together a year that placed him squarely in the MVP conversation. Vince Evans (0.5 AV) was good enough in some limited opportunities to go into Year III as the backup.
Everyone talks about the struggles at RB for Istanbul, but the picture is really pretty clear: if Franco Harris (4.2 AV, 770 rush yards, 7 TDs) is healthy, he’s the man. The challenge is keeping him healthy–this year he was limited to 7 games. Jerome Bettis (2.8 AV) was efficient, if highly unspectacular, as a replacement, but may be looking for a more prominent role somewhere. Le’Veon Bell (0.5 AV) will be moving on, not showing enough over 2 seasons to remain.
Istanbul would like to keep Rocky Bleier (0.3 AV) at FB. Last year’s surprise, Denard Robinson (-0.9 AV), was given a chance to take over at RB and failed miserably, ending his tenure with Istanbul.
The WR corps is, with the emergence of Louis Lipps, (6.0 AV) 4 deep now. It is led, as always, by Antonio Brown (16.8 AV, 84 receptions, 1426 yards, 14 TD), with Hines Ward (13.7 AV, 74 receptions, 1314 yards, 11 TD) as good a #2 as there is in the league. Lipps may have surpassed John Stallworth (5.3 AV) on the depth chart, and the team is likely to lose one of those 2.
Both Gary Ballman (2.3 AV) and Antwaan Randle El (1.5 AV) provide most of their value on kick returns, but they add depth here as well.
TE has always been a struggle. Larry Brown (0.6 AV) is adequate as a blocking TE, but is likely to be exposed in many drafts. Heath Miller (0.3 AV) showed a little potential behind him, but again, is likely to move on.
OL
With all the talk of injuries, one thing that is overlooked is how healthy the OL was overall on the season. Max Starks (10.9 AV) and David DeCastro (10.5 AV, 31 holes) were great, and Mike Webster (7.4 AV) continued to excel in the middle. The team is likely to keep Marshal Yanda (8.2 AV, 16 holes) as well, but the other T spot is a bit muddled.
They like the potential of Jonathan Ogden (2.0 AV), but he really didn’t show enough in 6 games, and once again Marvel Smith (6.7 AV) stepped in to perform at a far-above-replacement level.
Special Teams
Justin Tucker (1.3 AV, 6 50+) is the clearly established starter at K, despite some strong performances from David Akers (0.3 AV, 1 50+) when he was injured. Akers should get a look somewhere.
Sam Koch (0.0 AV) was perfectly mediocre, and is likely to move on.
Gary Ballman (2.1 ret AV, 28.2 KO avg) was spectacular returning kickoffs, and Antwaan Randle El (2.8 ret AV, 9.1 PR avg) was the best punt returner on the season.
Vince Williams (0.2 AV) was their best ST performer, and returns as the Gunner.
Defense
Pts/G: 9th
Rush Yards/G: 7th
Pass Yards/G: 3rd
Yards/P: 3rd
DL
Mean Joe Greene (14.3 AV, 5 sacks, 48 tackles, 16 hurries, 10 stuffs) was dominant inside once again, and Dwight White (10.4 AV, 5 sacks, 66 tackles, 14 stuffs) was the only consistent threat off the edge. Jack Wiley (7.4 AV, 10 hurries) was a bit of a revelation, stepping on to start 11 games at DT, but after that injuries and limited playing time dominate.
Brett Keisel (4.4 AV), LaMarr Woodley (4.1 AV), and L.C. Greenwood (4.0 AV) were all pretty similar at DE, with the team likely to protect Greenwood and let the other 2 move on. Justin Bannan (1.2 AV) filled in adequately across the line, but neither he nor Charles Johnson (0.9 AV) nor Haloti Ngata (0.9 AV) did enough to guarantee a roster spot next season.
LB
Two things are clear: moving Elvis Dumervil (16.5 AV, 14 sacks, 59 tackles, 10 hurries, 5 forced fumbles) to OLB paid off, and Ray Lewis (8.0 AV, 86 tackles) anchors the whole thing.
Beyond that, there is some confusion. Greg Lloyd (6.1 AV) had a good year at OLB, and showed enough to retain his spot.
Andy Russell (2.6 AV), Jack Lambert (2.1 AV), and Brendon Ayandbadejo (1.9 AV) were all solid, but none good enough to lock down a roster slot.
DB
CB Rod Woodson (10.6 AV, 70 tackles, 6 interceptions, 20 deflections) was dominant, and the S combo of Ed Reed (8.9 AV, 4 interceptions) and Troy Polamalu (10.5 AV, 32 deflections) is among the best in the league. Brady Keys (4.4 AV) was good at the other CB spot, but it’s not clear he survives the numbers game.
Between Keys and the trio of Carnell Lake (3.4 AV), Abe Woodson (3.0 AV), and Jack Butler (2.9 AV, 49 tackles), Istanbul will look to retain 2, with the others moving on elsewhere.
Players Retained
Franchise
QB: Johnny Unitas
WR: Antonio Brown, Hines Ward
OL: David DeCastro, Greg Lloyd
DL: Joe Greene
LB: Elvis Dumervil, Ray Lewis
DB: Rod Woodson, Ed Reed
Protected
RB: Franco Harris
WR: Louis Lipps
OL: Mike Webster, Max Starks, Marshal Yanda, Marvel Smith
DL: Dwight White, Jack Wiley, L.C. Greenwood
DB: Troy Polamalu, Carnell Lake
K: Justin Tucker
Reserves
QB: Vince Evans
RB: Rocky Bleier
WR: Antwaan Randle El, Gary Ballman
LB: Vince Williams
DB: Brady Keys
Taxis Kept
QB: Bubby Brister
DB: Chris McAlister
Players Waived
To Start Somewhere
WR: John Stallworth
DL: Brett Keisel, LeMarr Woodley
LB: Andy Russell, Jack Lambert
DB: Abe Woodson, Jack Butler
K: David Akers
To Play Somewhere
RB: Jerome Bettis, Le’Veon Bell
TE: Larry Brown, Heath Miller
OL: Jonathan Ogden
DL: Justin Bannan, Charles Johnson, Haloti Ngata
LB: Brendon Ayandbadejo
P: Sam Koch
Released
QB: Neil O’Donnell, Mark Malone, Bubby Brister
RB: Cory Schlesinger, Charlie Seabright, Mack Herron, Denard Robinson
TE: Calvin Magee, Hunter Henry, Dennis Pitta, Gavin Escobar
WR: Qadry Ismail
OL: Greg Warren, Eugene Monroe, Mike Sandusky, Jahri Evans, Harry Galbreath
DL: Greg Hardy
LB: Shaquil Barrett, James Harrison
DB: Mel Blount, Donnie Shell, Darrin Walls, Brynden Trawick, Monte Jackson