12-5, 2nd place
A very successful campaign, even if the loss in the Southish Championship game will sting for a while. The year really turned on the tough loss to Amsterdam early and the inexplicable loss to Lomé late hurt, as a win in either contest would have given the Carnival home field advantage through the playoffs.
Still, Rio’s identity remains crystal clear: the best OL in the league, the best RB in the league, and a defense good enough to compete. That implies the challenges as well: what does the Carnival do when they need to throw the ball?
The Off Season
Offensive diversification and some defensive upgrades.
Bottom Line
Strengths
RB, OL, top D talent.
Needs
WR, LB. D depth.
Offense
Pts: 4th
Rush/G: 1st
Pass/G: 12th
Yards/Play: 3rd
Skill
Usually, the Skill section starts with the QB. Not with Rio.
Jim Brown (9.5 AV, 1423 yards rushing, 16 TDs) is a force of nature, especially when you realize he accumulated those numbers over only 11 games. Once again, Jamaal Charles (5.3 AV, 832 yards rushing) was excellent, and after 2 years of only being featured when Brown is injured, Charles will move on in search of a true #1 role somewhere.
The Carnival are OK with this given the contributions of other backs: Anthony Sherman (3.7 AV) is a leading FB in the league, and the mixture of Abner Haynes (2.4 AV), Doc Elliott (5.5 AV, 589 yards rushing, 11 TDs in 86 rushes), and Earnest Byner (0.6 AV) look ready to step into Charles’ shoes.
So about QB. Len Dawson (7.2 AV, 1604 yards passing, 13:5 TD:interception) is the established starter here, but Otto Graham (7.6 AV, 1692 yards passing) was actually better according to AV in just about equal playing time (Graham actually played 22 more snaps). Graham’s the better runner, but Dawson holds the edge in almost all of the passing measurements. Bottom line: Graham has his eyes on the vacant job in Beijing.
Paul Warfield (9.3 AV, 51 receptions, 972 yards, 8 TDs) established himself as the #1 target at WR, and Michael Crabtree (7.0 AV, 45 receptions) is clearly adequate. But there’s not much else here: most of Dante Hall‘s (5.6 AV) value comes from returning kicks, and the Carnival are fed up with Josh Gordon‘s (2.7 AV) constant slew of injuries.
Eddie Kennison (2.5 AV) had a good year, and both he and Andrew Hawkins (1.2 AV) deserve a spot somewhere in the league.
When healthy, Tony Gonzalez (5.4 AV in 5 games) is elite. When healthy. Jordan Cameron (1.9 AV) is a good blocking end.
OL
You just can’t say enough about this group. The front five here are the soul of the team, led this year by T Joe Thomas (14.0 AV, 45 holes), but it’s really hard to separate him, Joel Bitonio (12.3 AV, 33 holes), or Frank Gatski (12.2 AV) in Year II. Will Shields (9.9 AV) would have been the best lineman on many teams, and Lou Groza (5.7 AV) was hurt for about half the season.
All that depth means Jeff Allen (2.9 AV) and Ryan Seymour (0.7 AV) each move on, despite solid showings for the Carnival
Special Teams
The Carnival stumbled into a remarkable edge in the kicking game. Cairo Santos (0.1 AV)–who was doing great–was injured and they decided to let punter Don Cockroft (1.6 AV) take a swing at the K duties as well. He was, simply, among the best in the league, missing only 5 FGs all year and connecting regularly from distance.
Dante Hall (27.3 yards/KOR, 11.0 yards/PR, 2 PR TDs) has the return job on lockdown, with Haynes filling in admirably when needed.
TE James Winchester returns as the gunner.
Defense
Pts/G: 6th
Rush Yards/G: 4th
Pass Yards/G: 7th
Yards/P: 10th
DL
Another team unsure of its best defensive structure, it is clear the DL starts with Jabaal Sheard (15.5 AV, 7 sacks, 90 tackles, 20 hurries, 14 stuffs, 9 forced fumbles), who was absolutely fantastic off the end. Dontari Poe (9.8 AV, 4 sacks, 15 hurries) was excellent in the middle, and Len Ford (7.2 AV, 31 tackles) good enough to retain on the other side.
The question is what to do with Tamba Hali (1.3 AV), who showed promise in limited action, but may be a victim of the numbers game.
LB
Here there be decisions.
The talent is clear, but the production is lacking. Partially a result of what they did in Year I, Craig Robertson (8.5 AV, 45 tackles, 7 hurries, 2 interceptions) and Derrick Thomas (6.2 AV, 7 sacks) are shoo-ins, although neither had a stellar year. Bobby Bell (6.0 AV, 51 tackles) showed good top-end potential as well.
But beyond those, it gets muddled. Clay Matthews (2.9 AV) and Shane Conlan (2.4 AV) should be starters somewhere, and an argument could be made for Justin Houston (1.4 AV) as well. Ramik Wilson (1.3 AV) was also good enough to hold down a spot on a WFL roster.
DB
Eric Berry (12.7 AV, 31 deflections) and Joe Haden (12.6 AV, 76 tackles) were dominant all year, and Johnny Robinson (8.9 AV, 4 interceptions) quite excellent. Hanford Dixon (6.1 AV) was good enough in 10 games to retain his spot, which means Buster Skrine (5.6 AV, 63 tackles)–who was surprisingly good–will find a starting job elsewhere.
Jim Leonhard (3.8 AV) and Will Hill (1.4 AV) are likely to move on as well.
All of this ignores Doc Elliott, who was an excellent reserve for the secondary, and should continue in his two-way ways.
Players Retained
Franchise
RB: Jim Brown
OL: Joe Thomas, Joel Bitonio, Will Shields, Lou Groza
DL: Jabaal Sheard, Len Ford
LB: Craig Robertson, Derrick Thomas
DB: Eric Berry
Protected
QB: Len Dawson
RB: Doc Elliott, Abner Haynes
WR: Paul Warfield, Michael Crabtree
TE: Tony Gonzalez
DL: Dontari Poe
LB: Bobby Bell
DB: Joe Haden, Johnny Robinson, Hanford Dixon
P/K: Don Cockroft
Reserves
RB: Earnest Byner
WR: Eddie Kennison
TE: Jordan Cameron, James Winchester
Taxis Kept
OL: Alex Mack
LB: Donnie Edwards
Players Waived
To Start Elsewhere
QB: Otto Graham
RB: Jamaal Charles, Anthony Sherman
OL: Frank Gatski, Jeff Allen
LB: Clay Matthews, Shane Conlan
DB: Buster Skrine
K: Cairo Santos
To Play Elsewhere
WR: Andrew Hawkins, Josh Gordon
OL: Ryan Seymour
DL: Tamba Hali
LB: Justin Houston, Ramik Wilson
DB: Jim Leonhard, Will Hill
Released
QB: Chase Daniel, Johnny Manziel, Milt Plum
RB: Mike Garrett, Jerald Sowell
WR: Jim Doran, Ken Payne
TE: O.J. Howard, Harry Holt
OL: Fran O’Brien, Ryan Tucker
DL: Justin Ellis, John Randle, Jamie Meder, Buck Buchanan, Mel Branch, Antonio Smith, Billy Winn
LB: D.J. Alexander, Keena Turner, Erick Anderson, Paul Crane, Craig Robertson
DB: Ron Bolton, Jimmy Wilson, Monte Jackson, Greg Wesley
P: Chris Gardocki
K: Nate Keading