9-8, 6th place
Berlin continues to be a bit of a puzzle. There are all of the pieces here to contend, but either injuries or under performance keep getting in the way. When they click on all cylinders–like in their 5 game winning streak at the end of the season–they look fantastic.
But they’re still trying to figure it out.
This is clearest at QB and RB. Sid Luckman sure looks like a WFL QB, but it’s not clear his production compensates for his turnovers and poor completion rates. Walter Payton sure looks like a WFL RB, but the team averages under 100 yards rushing per game, and Payton has struggled to really dominate many games.
But maybe that is looking in the wrong place: it was the defense that could do no better than 10th in any of the categories, after all. The issue–on both sides of the ball–was an overall lack of star power, reflected in nobody on the team putting together an AV over 10.
The Off Season
It’s all about trying to add star power, and there’s some willingness to take some risks to get there.
Bottom Line
Strengths
QB, #1WR, the potential of the defense, WR depth.
Needs
OL upgrades and defensive pieces.
Offense
Pts: 10th
Rush/G: 14th
Pass/G: 6th
Yards/Play: 9th
Skill
Luckman (8.9 AV, 3683 yards passing, 101.2 QBR, 29:5 TD:Int) has moments of absolute brilliance, and was on his game in Year II. Whatever the concerns are about him–a low completion rate tops the list–he is clearly the starter into the future. Matt Ryan (1.6 AV) has shown enough to warrant a possible look elsewhere, while Michael Vick (0.2 AV) and Steve Bartkowski (0.2 AV) will hopefully return behind Luckman.
Walter Payton (6.6 AV, 988 rush yards, 1424 yards from scrimmage, 6 rush TD) has over 2,500 yards and 13 TDs rushing over 2 seasons and is one of the better receiving backs in the league. So why is everyone disappointed in his performance? The issue is that it seems like so much more is possible here. He’ll have another year to prove it out.
Behind Payton, there’s been very little: George Gulyanics (1.1 AV) did well enough in Year II to stick around, but Neal Anderson (1.2 AV) is looking for more touches elsewhere.
WR is where the first really interesting choices kick in. Alshon Jeffery (5.9 AV, 8 rec TD) is a no-brainer, but behind him it gets complicated. Brandon Marshall (1.9 AV) was amazing in Year I, and injured for virtually all of Year II. In his absence, Alfred Jenkins (5.3 AV, 50 receptions, 803 rec yards), Roddy White (5 AV), and Santonio Holmes (4.0 AV) were practically indistinguishable. Jenkins gets the nod, although you could make an argument for White’s deep threat as the better choice. Tom Waddle (0.4 AV) had 2 catches on the year, and each went for a TD; enough to keep him around as well.
The bottom line here is that Marshall will be exposed to the draft, and Berlin will hope they can retain 2 or 3 of those 4 wideouts behind Jeffery.
Mike Ditka (8.7 AV, 51 rec, 712 yards, 7 TDs) is the only TE worth mentioning; indeed, Martellus Bennett was the only other TE to take a snap.
OL
T Joe Stydahar (7.7 AV, 12 holes) is a fixture, although his Year II performance was nowhere near as dominant as his Year I. The same could be said, in a lower key, for C Jeff Van Note (3.5 AV). T Jordan Mills (7.0 AV) and newcomer Andy Levitre (4.6 AV) both were strong enough in Year II to keep their jobs, leaving a single G position up for grabs, with Michael Ola (4.0 AV) and Justin Blalock (3.0 AV) both potentially looking elsewhere.
Special Teams
Kevin Butler (0.4 AV) was hurt much of Year II but is still the go-to K for Berlin. They will be looking for a new P, however, as Billy Lothridge (0.3 AV) just didn’t work out.
Eric Weems (1.0 AV) continues to have a lock on the return job.
LB Deion Jones was the special teams leader.
Defense
Pts/G: 10th
Rush Yards/G: 11th
Pass Yards/G: 11th
Yards/P: 12th
DL
Dan Hampton (9.5 AV, 6 sacks, 16 hurries) was their best player overall in Year II, and will be welcomed back with open arms. Behind him, though, it gets muddy. Osi Umenyiora (8.3 AV) will provide pressure off the edge, and mid-season pickup Gino Marchetti (4.0 AV, 6 sacks, 12 hurries in 7 G) certainly showed enough to become a full-time start in Year III.
But what to do behind them is very confusing: do you retain Franchise Player Jay Ratliff (4.7 AV), despite a relatively mediocre Year II? Or do you keep Jonathan Babineaux (6.6 AV), the franchise sack leader?
Ratliff is the choice, making Babineaux one of the more attractive players on the market.
LB
There is a lot of pressure on Berlin to shift to a 3-4 given the depth of talent at LB. Even with that, it’s not clear there is enough playing time to go around. The quartet of Lance Briggs (7.6 AV, 77 tackles), Brian Urlacher (8.2 AV, 98 tackles, 10 stuffs), Joplo Bartu (4.4 AV), and Dick Butkus (3.6 AV) is pretty set, but that leaves Mike Singletary (1.5 AV)–he of over 100 tackles in year I–on the outside looking in.
Both Singletary and John Abraham (0.3 AV) deserve starting roles somewhere.
DB
Desmond Trufant (8.4 AV, 85 tackles, 4 forced fumbles), Ray Brown (6.7 AV, 4 int), and Rolland Lawrence (5.0 AV, 17 deflections) are fixtures, but both Mike Mitchell (3.3 AV) and William Moore (3.3 AV) impressed at S, and the team can’t keep both of them. Moore’s tenure with the team gives him the edge, putting Mitchell on the move once more.
Players Retained
Retained
QB: Sid Luckman
RB: Walter Payton
WR: Alshon Jeffery
TE: Mike Ditka
OL: Joe Stydahar
DL: Osi Umenyiora, Dan Hampton, Jay Ratliff, G. Marchetti
LB: Lance Briggs, B. Urlacher
DB: Ray Brown
Protected
WR: Alfred Jenkins
OL: Jeff Van Note, Jordan Mills, Andy Levitre
LB: Dick Butkus, Joplo Bartu
DB: Desmond Trufant, Rolland Lawrence, William Moore
K: Kevin Butler
Reserves
QB: Michael Vick, Steve Bartkowski
RB: George Gulyanics
WR: Tom Waddle
ST: Deion Jones
Taxis Kept
TE: Junior Miller
LB: Joe Fortunato
Players Waived
To Start Somewhere
WR: Brandon Marshall
DL: Jonathan Babineaux
LB: Mike Singletary, John Abraham
To Play Somewhere
QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Neal Anderson
WR: Roddy White, Santonio Holmes
OL: Michael Ola, Justin Blalock
DB: Mike Mitchell
Released
RB: Pierre Thomas, Joe Laws, Ron Springs, Jason Snelling
TE: Martellus Bennett, Patrick Scales
WR: Eric Parker
OL: Kynan Forney, Stan Jones, Dominic Raiola, Kyle Long, John Miller, Taylor Boggs
DL: George Seals, Kroy Biermann, Chris Smith, Henry Anderson, Patrick Kerney, Mike Lewis
LB: Jim Purnell, Bryson Albright, Lamarr Houston, Chuck Drazenovich, Nicholas Grigsby
DB: Chris Conte, Chris Owens, Charles Tillman, Chad Cota, Mike Bass, Brandon Dixon, Ken Lucas
P: Billy Lothridge, Rick Partridge